514
FXUS63 KSGF 310826
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND OVERALL WEAKEN WITH TIME, BUT MAY NOT DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON THE FRONT LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON., MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE WEAKER SIDE SO BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE AREA IN ARKANSAS AND THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY MAY
JUST CLIP THE FAR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BOARDER WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN
ARKANSAS.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
MISSOURI ARKANSAS BOARDER WHERE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ARE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL COOL INTO
THE 60S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
50S TO THE LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT. WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE AREA BEING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EAST
INTO THE REGION WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. JUST HOW FAR
WEST INTO MO IT MAKES IT INTO MISSOURI IS THE QUESTION BEFORE
WEAKENING AND MOVING MORE SOUTH. THE KJLN TAF SITE WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE AND JUST BEYOND THIS
TAF PERIOD BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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