513  
FXUS63 KSGF 311756  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS  
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE  
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO  
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME  
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE  
TO MOVE EAST AND OVERALL WEAKEN WITH TIME, BUT MAY NOT DISSIPATE  
COMPLETELY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY A COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON THE FRONT LATE THIS  
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON., MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS  
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE  
ON THE WEAKER SIDE SO BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING  
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF  
THE AREA IN ARKANSAS AND THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY MAY  
JUST CLIP THE FAR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR THE  
ARKANSAS BOARDER WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  
OVERALL THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN  
ARKANSAS.  
 
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE  
MISSOURI ARKANSAS BOARDER WHERE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S  
ARE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL COOL INTO  
THE 60S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST ON  
FRIDAY WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S ARE  
EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE  
50S TO THE LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT. WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND  
WITH THE AREA BEING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH  
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH  
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EAST  
INTO THE REGION WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED  
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025  
 
BANDED MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING...AS WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
I-44 TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER.  
 
KBBG AND AREAS ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER MAY SEE CEILINGS LOWER  
TOWARD A 1000FT OVERNIGHT IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...CEILINGS  
TO THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA  
VFR BY 06Z.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...WISE  
AVIATION...RUNNELS  
 
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