906
FXUS63 KSGF 312324
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTHERN AR TO
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG I-44 IN
OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44...INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG
WITH A BANDS OF CLOUDS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALOFT A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THE ROCKIES AND CLOSED LOWS/TROUGHS OVER
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ANOTHER EXITING THE EASTERN
CANADA.
DESPITE UPPER HEIGHTS RISING...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A
WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT HOT WEATHER AS H8 TEMPERATURES DROP
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES C TODAY TO 14-16 DEGREES SATURDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO WEAKEN THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE STRONGER WAVE REACHING THE OZARKS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LIMITING THE RETURN FLOW OF RICH MOIST AIR AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
THE GULF WILL OPEN BY MIDWEEK AS WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO
ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOWER END CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
MOST OF MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THOUGH, SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR BBG WILL STILL HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING BUT WILL BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...RUNNELS
AVIATION...SORIA
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