169
FXUS63 KSGF 010736
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SURFACE PATTERN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUING TO FILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THANKS TO THE
NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS,
COMBINED WITH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES THANKS TO
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 14-16 DEGREES WHICH WILL OCCUR AGAIN
INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, THIS WILL
ACT TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE
BY SUNDAY...WITH A BIT MORE STRONGER WAVE REACHING THE OZARKS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE GULF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE RETURN FLOW OF RICH MOIST AIR AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
THE GULF WILL OPEN BY MIDWEEK AS WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO
ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOWER END CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
AS THE MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN TO THE OZARKS BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, SO WILL THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERN FLOW
ALOFT BUT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP THE REGION MILD AND DRY. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
BROKEN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY
OCCUR BUT THE LIMITED NATURE OF MVFR OCCURRENCE EXPECTED KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. THE KBBG TERMINAL WILL BE CLOSEST TO
AREAS THAT SAW SHOWERS TODAY. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW
FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM 11-16Z AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10MPH FOR
THE REGION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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