943  
FXUS63 KSGF 012027  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
327 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PATCHY SMOKE INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE  
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL  
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY  
INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER, MODEL RH FIELDS  
SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN  
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN  
ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. INSPECTION OF NEAR  
SURFACE SMOKE DENSITY OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME  
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SMOKE  
WILL BE MUCH THICKER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE WHICH  
WILL PROMOTE A RED SUNSET OVER AREAS THAT CAN ESCAPE THICKER  
CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  
 
AS A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE  
REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER  
60S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN  
OZARKS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
THIS WEEKEND:  
 
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SMOKE POTENTIAL INTO AT LEAST  
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND ON TAP. DRY  
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH SHORT-TERM  
MODELS STRONGLY CLUSTERED AROUND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER  
70S ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.  
 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY WARRANT A JACKET IN  
SOME AREAS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND  
PROMOTES EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES  
STRONGLY SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE  
EASTERN OZARKS. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES ALONG THE  
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
LONG WAVE CHARTS AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT  
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS  
WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO  
NEAR-SEASONAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS  
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST AREAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HEAT  
INDICES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN  
THE 60S. NEVERTHELESS, AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49  
CORRIDOR WILL SEE INDICES BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH A  
FEW EXCEPTIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MCS ACTIVITY  
COMING IN OFF OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF  
CONVECTION CAN GET FAR ENOUGH EAST, AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
I-49 CORRIDOR WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL. WE  
CURRENTLY HAVE POPS RUNNING AT 15-20% FOR THIS POTENTIAL  
SCENARIO.  
 
A SECOND SCENARIO THAT MAY TRANSPIRE IS AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS  
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WOULD  
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63  
CORRIDOR. WE HAVE POPS RUNNING IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR THIS  
SCENARIO, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LATE NEXT WEEK:  
 
FIVE WAVE CHARTS INDICATE THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE EXPANDING  
NORTHEAST AND BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INSPECTION OF CLUSTER  
SCENARIOS INDICATE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN. THUS, OUR  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>80%) THAT THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.  
 
NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGHS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 90S WHICH ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE MEDIAN OF THE  
STATISTICAL SPREAD. THIS CHECKS OUT WELL WITH CONDITIONAL  
CLIMATOLOGY OF PROGGED 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS.  
 
DEW POINTS LATER NEXT WEEK MAY CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND  
LOWER 70S--HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL NOT BE  
SUPPORTIVE OF OPPRESSIVE VALUES LIKE WE SAW OVER MANY AREAS  
DURING OUR RECENT HEAT WAVE. THUS, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL  
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 94 TO 104 RANGE OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF  
THE AREA. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
(105 DEGREES), ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES CAN PUSH CLOSER TO THE  
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE (UPPER 90S).  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE LESS  
THAN 10%. THE BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN  
SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO WARM TO SUPPORT  
AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AROUND JOPLIN FOR MUCH OF THE  
AFTERNOON DUE TO CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE.  
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY  
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 21Z WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 22Z.  
 
VFR WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT SPRINGFIELD AND BRANSON AS  
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AND VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6 MILES.  
 
SHORT TERM MODELS THEN INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED  
VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND  
JOPLIN. GIVEN THAT PROBABILITIES OF MVFR OCCURRING ARE LESS THAN  
20%, WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE 18Z TAFS.  
 
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM THIS  
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 9-12 KNOT RANGE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AS HIGH AS  
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING (AND MIXING).  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN  
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN  
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN  
 
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