220
FXUS63 KSGF 281806
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
106 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN ENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES (30% OR LESS) NEXT WEEK.
- CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE SEPTEMBER 4TH THROUGH 10TH PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
THE DYING REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT'S RAIN ARE CONTINUING TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE.
SEVERAL MODELS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
IT'S HARD TO SAY IF THEIR OVERESTIMATE OF THE RAIN IS ALSO
LEADING TO AN OVERESTIMATE OF FOG POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, LIGHT
WINDS, A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, AND SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
NEAR TO BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES SUPPORT A BIT OF A WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE SEPTEMBER 4TH THROUGH 10TH PERIOD.
LOW RAIN CHANCES:
A GLANCE AT NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SITUATION AWARENESS TABLES
AND THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX/SHIFT OF TAILS DOESN'T REVEAL ANY
PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS DISRUPTIONS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A GENERALLY STAGNANT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WELL, WHICH WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED.
LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS, THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING THE MIDWEST IN THE DAY 5-7
PERIOD, WHICH COULD AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. INDEED, ALL FOUR CLUSTERS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. NBM POPS
REMAIN LOW (30% OR LESS) AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, AND DETAILS
WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THOSE DATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. RAIN LARGELY LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF
MISSOURI BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
A HANDFUL OF GUSTS NEAR 18 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON;
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 28:
KSGF: 68/1986
KJLN: 70/1988
KUNO: 69/1988
KVIH: 71/1965
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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