191
FXUS63 KSGF 291839
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
139 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF SPRINGFIELD ON SUNDAY.
- THERE ARE 30-60% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS ALLOWED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
STICK AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST, ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE.
OVERNIGHT, MODELS DISAGREE ON ANY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION. A MINORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION THAT WOULD PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT MOST TEND TO SHOW A DRIER, FOG-FREE SOLUTION.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5 SM ARE AROUND 20%
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND:
THIS WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY STAGNANT UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST, LEAVING MISSOURI UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THE PLAINS WILL INTRODUCE SOME
RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY, A WEAK
IMPULSE LOOKS TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA THAT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
CWA DURING THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY LOOKS TO STAY
WEST OF SPRINGFIELD, CLOSER TO THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
ON MONDAY, ENSEMBLES TEND TO SHOW A MORE PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT TRANSLATING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND. WITH
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
INSTABILITY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS
OVER THE AREA, RAIN CHANCES MAY PERSIST INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE:
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LARGELY, THEY AGREE THAT A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL INTRUDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS, BUT THEY
DISAGREE ON THE EXACT MAGNITUDE. ENS MEMBERS FAVOR A COOLER
SOLUTION AND TEND TO DIG THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST, WHILE GEFS MEMBERS TEND TO BE WARMER AND ARE A BIT FARTHER
EAST IN THEIR TROUGH POSITIONING.
THE CPC 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK STILL STRONGLY FAVORS (80%
CHANCE) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
PERSISTENT IFR CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE JLN TERMINAL. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE COMMON ACROSS
KANSAS, SO MVFR CEILINGS MAY STICK AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL (20% CHANCE) FOR FOG POTENTIAL AT THE
BBG TERMINAL BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SHALLOW NEAR- SURFACE MOISTURE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAFS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT,
GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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