779
FXUS63 KSGF 301119
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE 10-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF SPRINGFIELD AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-49 ON SUNDAY.
- THERE ARE 20-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT TIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE REGION REMAINS IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY. HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NO RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MOST DENSE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO MOVE
EAST, BUT THE BETTER LIFT ALONG WITH WEAK UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SO THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT WEST OF I-49 BUT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. OVERALL THE BETTER LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND MUCH OF THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-49 IF NOT WEST OF THE
AREA ALTOGETHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
AS MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL, THE BETTER LIFT
AND INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO CLIP THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK UNCAPPED
MUCAPE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO DEVELOP. THE TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE BANDED AND ISOLATED IN NATURE SO NOT ALL LOCATIONS MAY BE
AFFECTED. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT BUT NOT ALL
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE RAIN.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK AND WE MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MIDDLE 70S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSISTING NEAR 5-10 MPH. BBG CURRENTLY HAS VISIBILITIES
AROUND 5 TO 6 SM THIS MORNING AND THOSE WILL STAY LOWERED UNTIL
AROUND 14Z WHEN THE PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF. FOG COULD DISPERSE
EARLIER DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SORIA
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