412
FXUS63 KSGF 311129
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST
OF A BRANSON TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH LINE AND ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-49 AT TIMES TODAY.
- THERE ARE 20-60% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT TIMES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
IN KANSAS. THE SHOWERS ACROSS KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
PITTSBURG, KANSAS TO WARSAW, MISSOURI LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING, THEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WEST OF A BRANSON TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH LINE
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-49 AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA SO OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST COMPLETELY DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED TODAY SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ANY
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF I-49 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE NON
STOP RAIN ALL DAY FOR ANY GIVEN SPOT, BUT MULTIPLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED ACROSS AREA THE AREA BUT
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON MONDAY AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
SOME MIDDLE 80 READINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, AND FEW OF THE
COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD LOWS
TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 66/2008
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 47/1974
KVIH: 44/1902
KUNO: 44/1997
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SORIA
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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