883
FXUS63 KSGF 010544
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO FAR WESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN.
- SHOWERS WITH SOME POTENTIAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT IS KEEPING THINGS SLOW MOVING WITH A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH SOME RIDGING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER ENERGY WAS
INTERACTING WITH SOME MOISTURE, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
INCLUDING EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
THROUGH MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE WITH TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS(40-55%) IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH. LOW POPS(30% OR LESS) WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA(30-50% CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES: TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ARE NOT PUTTING ANY RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY AT THIS TIME (CURRENT RECORDS ARE LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENING
HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 66/2008
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 47/1974
KVIH: 44/1902
KUNO: 44/1997
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...SORIA
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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