318
FXUS63 KSGF 022102
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- WHILE SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON (10-15% CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI), THE NEXT
MAIN POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
AFTER A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, LOOK FOR
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL COMPRESS AND SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE WEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S)AND
RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL TO NIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTER PATTERN. LOOK FOR GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES OF 30-40% MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT OVERALL NOT TOO CONCERNED GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL
AND MARGINAL WIND/HUMIDITY COMBO.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATASETS AND
MODERNIZED FORECAST PROCESS TOOLS SHOW LIMITED PREDICTABILITY
WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURES DRIVING RAIN CHANCES, KEEPING POPS AT
25-35%. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING
WEDNESDAY, BUT DO OVERALL FAVOR COOLER WEATHER THAN WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR EXAMPLE, AT SGF THE NBM DETERMINISTIC MAXT
FOR WEDNESDAY IS 74, BUT THE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE IS
FROM 67 TO 84 DEGREES. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL
EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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