275
FXUS63 KSGF 032323
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT MAIN POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-30% CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.
- UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR OR CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WINDS GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 30 TO 40% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD
DROP TO BELOW 30%. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE GRASS FUELS HAVE DRIED OUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ON MONDAY
WITH THE TROUGH BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL TOO.
THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR THIS ARE
LOW (<30%).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCES) WITH THE FRONT
AS COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE TROUGH.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE MAKES IT, BUT OVERALL THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
MODEL MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, BUT THE MODELS
ARE STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS THE RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA AND THEREFORE NOT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE'VE
BEEN SEEING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND HOW DEEP THE TROUGH/LOW IS. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES
WITH THE TROUGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. STILL A LARGE RANGE IN
POTENTIAL HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK, AS THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS
DIFFER FROM THE 60S TO 80S. THE NBM IS GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO THE 25 PERCENTILE WHICH MAKES SENSE
WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TO HAVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TITUS
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