473  
FXUS63 KSGF 041140  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
640 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (5 TO 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL) AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
- 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE SPARSE AND  
LIGHT.  
 
- SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
 
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD DRY AIR  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS A POSITIVELY-  
TILTED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN TX, UP  
THROUGH MO, AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE  
RIDGE AXIS IS A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAD SLOWLY  
MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH OF THESE  
FEATURES FALL UNDER A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS A POTENT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND:  
 
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW CLEAR SKIES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY  
AND SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES OUR STREAK OF TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE  
MILD IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND:  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NE AND EJECT OFF  
THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ND/SD, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH, WE CAN  
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SUSTAINED  
WINDS AT 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY  
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST SHOULD PROMOTE MIXDOWN OF THE  
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AFTERNOON RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 30-40% RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY. PATTERN  
RECOGNITION ALONG WITH SOME MEMBERS OF THE HREF SUGGEST  
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE VALUES BELOW 30% (HREF GIVES A 20-40%  
CHANCE OF THIS FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA).  
THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS, MAY INTRODUCE A VERY MINOR  
FIRE WEATHER RISK TO LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY  
IMPACTED BY DROUGHT-LIKE CONDITIONS AND BROWNING FALL FUELS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
 
20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:  
 
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH INTO CANADA, THE  
PATTERN THAT REMAINS IS A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM CA UP TO  
ND, WITH THE JET STREAM ORIENTED ALONG THAT AXIS. THIS WILL  
PRODUCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD  
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES NE TO THE NORTHERN  
GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STALLED MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET SITS IN ITS PLACE. THIS MEANS  
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR  
AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARM IN THE  
MIDDLE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS PERSISTING IN THE MIDDLE  
50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
MEANWHILE, A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH  
OUT OF THE GULF, ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.  
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND  
LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE  
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE  
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS  
RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING NO RAIN AT  
ALL. OF COURSE, ANY AREA THAT SEES A THUNDERSTORM WILL SEE  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT AN EXPECTED THREAT.  
 
THE STALLED COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE THROUGH THE  
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS  
EASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH  
SYNOPTIC ASCENT STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES  
LOW (<20%) AS THE FRONT PASSES.  
 
MODELS STARTING TO FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK:  
 
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
DECREASE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY. NBM SPREADS ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN  
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS  
IN THE 50S. AFTER WEDNESDAY, SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN  
THE EXACT NATURE OF THE PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING  
TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST  
COAST, WITH A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND  
PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UNCERTAINTIES ARE TWO-FOLD. FIRSTLY,  
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE EXTENDS. SECONDLY, IF ANY SHORTWAVES DROP  
THROUGH THE AREA. A FURTHER WEST RIDGE ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR  
NORMAL. A FURTHER EAST RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE 80 F. EITHER SCENARIO, THE LARGE-  
SCALE PATTERN IS GREATER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHICH IS  
TIGHTENING NBM SPREADS TOWARD NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FROM RECENT FORECASTS. DEPENDING ON SMALL-SCALE FEATURES, WE  
COULD SEE SOME SMALL DEVIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES, BUT FOR THE  
MOST PART, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80 F, AND  
LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL  
SITES. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP  
TO 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN  
15-01Z.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PRICE  
LONG TERM...PRICE  
AVIATION...PRICE  
 
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