958
FXUS63 KSGF 060542
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- 20-60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 30-50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 5.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A FRONT MID-WEEK WITH MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PERSISTENT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WERE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PW
VALUES BELOW 1". SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO
NUDGE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST CWA AND WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL START TO SEE SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. THE UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MONDAY: MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE. THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS IT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION CHANCES...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
HIGHEST POPS(20-60%) ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. LOW POPS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY(20-40%). THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TO THE AREA(MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME CHALLENGES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GEFS MEAN RIDGE AXIS MUCH FURTHER
WEST THAN THE ENS MEAN. IF THE GEFS IS CLOSER TO REALITY THEN WE
WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE ENS RIDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA IT
WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SEE NO REASON FOR CHANGING THE LOW
POPS(25% OR LESS) AT THIS POINT FROM THE NBM.
AFTER A BRIEF DAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WE START TO SEE AN UPWARD
TEMPERATURE TREND AGAIN...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK BRINGS A STRONG CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLE
DATA IS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES IN A 6 TO 12 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, TWO SYSTEMS WILL ENTER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY,
SANDWICHING THE TAF SITES IN THE MIDDLE OF EACH SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>75% CHANCE) FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER AND 3-8 KT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AT EACH TAF SITE.
THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE SMALL RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA AFTER
18Z, BUT THE COVERAGE IS IN LARGE QUESTION. AT THE MOMENT, SGF
AND BBG HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER IMPACT THE SITES
BETWEEN 19-01Z (25-35% CHANCE), THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THIS TIMEFRAME (<15% CHANCE). ANY SHOWER MAY
BRING VISIBILITIES AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, LOW CIGS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
ENTER BBG FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PRICE
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