991
FXUS63 KSGF 070733
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RATHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE THEN LIKELY (>75%
CHANCE) TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ALSO EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS
LARGELY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS IMAGERY AS
AREAS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ONE BRANCH, THE
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH, IS NOSING INTO THE OZARKS, ADDING FORCING
TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE
AR. NORTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OUR REGION. SOME BUILD-DOWN OF THE
STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. INDEED, SOME
STATIONS ARE REPORTING 1-2 MILE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS STRETCHING FROM CO TO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, FORCING SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY, THROUGH EXTREME SE KS,
NORTH-CENTRAL MO, AND INTO MI. THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT MAY
REACH INTO OUR WEST MO AND SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, CHANCES ARE <30%.
DREARY DAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AS LIGHT PATCHY FOG CLEARS:
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, THE VERY
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CLEAR OUT, BUT ADDITIONAL
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
MAKING FOR A CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY. THE CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND WEST MO, TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, TO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
10-30% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY:
LEFTOVER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH
THE JET STREAM BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY (10-30% CHANCE). AN ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND LOW INSTABILITY,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW. THEREFORE, ANY RAINFALL THAT
IS SEEN TODAY WILL LARGELY BE NEGLIGIBLE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR
EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (FOR
EXAMPLE, PORTIONS OF BOURBON, VERNON, ST. CLAIR, BENTON, MORGAN,
OREGON, AND SHANNON COUNTIES).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY, THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOLER AIR MASS TO SIT IN
OUR REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES IS, OF COURSE,
RELATIVE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IS NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BECAUSE OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER WINDS IN THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM, LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK:
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST. LREF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAVE FALLEN INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST, WITH ITS AXIS FALLING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. NBM SPREADS ARE NOW QUITE SMALL MEANING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S DURING THIS PERIOD.
DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES THAT COULD
EVOLVE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. ONE OF THESE IS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE NOSE OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET INTRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST MO AND SOUTHEAST
KS AS SOME DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS
MORE OF A MESOSCALE TYPE PATTERN THAT WOULD MAINLY BE RESOLVED
AS WE GET CLOSE TO THE TIME, SO CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN
15%.
THE SECOND OF THESE IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND CLUSTERS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES (I.E.,
THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE LATER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD).
THEREFORE, NOT MUCH CAN BE SAID ABOUT THESE CHANCES OTHER THAN
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST,
AND A DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF LOWERED CIGS AND BUILD-DOWN
STRATUS TO FOG, AS WELL AS THE EXACT TIMING IN THE
DETERIORATION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE PLETHORA OF TEMPO GROUPS
IN THE TAFS. NEVERTHELESS, KUNO IS CURRENTLY AT OVC004 AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO BBG AND SGF SOMETIME TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 08-14Z AT SGF AND BBG (70-95% CONFIDENCE), WITH
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THAT
TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THESE CIGS HOLD ON
AFTER 14Z, AND IF THERE IS ANY BUILD-DOWN TO CREATE DENSE FOG
AT THE SITES. FOG IS LEAST LIKELY AT JLN, HOWEVER.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16-03Z, LOWERED CIGS
ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE). BUT ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG THEY LAST AND IF THERE'S ANY IFR
CONSIDERATIONS.
WITH THE FROPA, 3-8 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HARD
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS. THEN, AFTER 00Z,
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO START CLEARING OUT, WITH SOME REMNANT MVFR
LEVELS POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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