526
FXUS63 KSGF 071858
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
158 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE THEN LIKELY
(>75% CHANCE) TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOW
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTED THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG
THE 850-700MB FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AND THE
NOSE OF A 30-35KT 700MB JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION AS CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SOME LOW
CLOUD COVER REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE CLOUD
COVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALLOWING FOR FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN PLACE WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE COOLER
AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW READINGS
IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE LOW VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST REGION.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER BY FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR TO MAKE A RETURN TO
THE AREA WITH READING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING. THERE ARE A FEW POTENTIAL
PERIODS WHERE RAIN MAY DEVELOP (5-15%) THE FIRST OF WHICH MAY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF
A LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS MAY DEVELOP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
MO AND SOUTHEAST KS AS SOME DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS SHOW.
THE SECOND OF THESE IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND CLUSTERS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES (I.E.,
THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE LATER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD).
THEREFORE, NOT MUCH CAN BE SAID ABOUT THESE CHANCES OTHER THAN
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A 15-25% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR TO OCCASIONALLY
LIFR RANGES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE COOLER AIR THAT IS
FILTERING INTO THE OZARKS, IFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR AT OR
AROUND THE 5KFT LEVEL ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING SHIFTING
TO EASTERLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHERE OR IF WINDS
BECOME LIGHT OR CALM, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE LIMITED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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