416
FXUS63 KSGF 081855
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE THEN LIKELY (>75%
CHANCE) TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WERE IN CONTROL OF
THE REGIONS WEATHER. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE HELPING TO KEEP
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE OZARKS, WHICH WAS SEE WITH THE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLEARER SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT,
LOWS COOL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WHAT
WE WE SEE TODAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING, MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE PLAINS
AND SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE SEASONABLE AVERAGES.
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES SPREADS ARE RATHER NARROW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INDICATING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. CURRENT OUTPUT
SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S BY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRINGING A LOW CHANCE (10-25%) OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK STILL HAVE
AMPLE UNCERTAINTIES (I.E. TIMING, FRONTAL POSITION, ETC.). AS A
RESULT RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT ON THE LOWER END FOR NOW (10-30%)
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER GRASP ON THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY FROM
5-10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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