381
FXUS63 KSGF 090641
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE THEN LIKELY (>75%
CHANCE) TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED, WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION,
WITH SATELLITE ONLY SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 2AM. WE'LL START TO GET
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE MID 70S. WITH THE AREA STILL SITUATED
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WE CAN EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY FILTERING OUT OF THE WESTERN
CWA BY TONIGHT AND WINDS STAYING GENERALLY LIGHT (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS), OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ALONG/WEST OF HWY 65, DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S EAST OF HWY 65 (LOWER END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE
EASTERN OZARKS).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO
DIAGONALLY BISECT CENTRAL MISSOURI, COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT WILL LEAD TO CHANCES (10-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 - HOWEVER THE BETTER
CHANCES (30-40%) CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTH OF US WHERE THE LLJ IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND SLOWLY PUSHES EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 80S (ALONG/WEST OF I-49).
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION, THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
80S BY SUNDAY (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
LIMITED CHANCES (15-25%) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE'S A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, TIMING,
FRONTAL POSITIONING, ETC., SO WE'LL HAVE TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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