171
FXUS63 KSGF 012218
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THOUGH THE OZARKS
LAST NIGHT WAS ONGOING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 5-10MPH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HELPED PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WILL ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH THROUGH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS
THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AND SETTLE IN PLACE BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF THE OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. ENSEMBLES HAVE A 60-70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES AT OF BELOW 32 DEGREES WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO
SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES. TONIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING A KILLING FREEZE AND THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1AM THOUGH 9AM SUNDAY
MORNING.
ONE THING THAT MAY ALSO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND DURATION IS LIMITED, WOULD BE ISOLATED TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAIN LAST
NIGHT, WARM GROUND, COLD AIR ADVECTION, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AFTER A COLD MORNING, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING
AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP, AIDING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. AN
ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THOUGH/MODIFY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP MOVE A DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
THE BUSY UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN BRING THE NEXT
POTENTIAL RAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
NOTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN START TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 6KT WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI, INCLUDING
THE KJLN TAF SITE, SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE
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