801
FXUS63 KSGF 020718
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AND
BELOW.
- WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK.
- LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING HAS SLOWLY
SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN IL. WE ARE SEEING RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AS
A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS. WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND WE ARE SEEING PRETTY GOOD
RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOULD GET CLOSE TO AND BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AND WITH THE EXPECTED FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONGER 850MB WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AFTER A COLD START TO
THE MORNING. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN OUR EASTERN CWA,
BUT THE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL KEEP A BIT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S THERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK: A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET
UP EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
12-15 DEG C RANGE ON MON-TUE. LOCAL CLIMATE SOUNDING STUDY SHOWS
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THOSE 850MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR
NBM NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND HAS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS NBM MEMBERS. THERE IS A BIT MORE VARIANCE ON
THURSDAY AS WE START TO GET A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY: A DIP IN THE
JET STREAM WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALSO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD INREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-20% AT THIS
TIME) WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 5 KTS TO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST, WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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