240
FXUS63 KSGF 022249
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) WITH A FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE
WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. THE 12Z KSGF SOUNDING
REVEALED A DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 900MB WITH A PW VALUE OF ONLY
0.26IN. MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE ALLOWED FOR THE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. AFTER A MORNING
START IN THE 20S AND 30S, TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A
WEST TO EAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS
AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS. NO FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED TONIGHT SINCE MOST LOCATIONS DROPPED BELOW FREEZING LAST
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD COULD SEE SOME
FROST/FREEZE BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PUSH A
WEAK/DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MEAN 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE 10-12C RANGE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. 850MB TEMPS THEN CLIMB EVEN HIGHER
INTO THE 12-14C RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH IS 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST NBM HAS
50-90% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 30MPH TUESDAY. NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES THEN SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN QUESTION
GIVEN THE PRECEDING DRY DAYS THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20 PERCENT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ENSEMBLES THEN
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP EITHER OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. THE LATEST NBM HAS TEMPERATURE RANGES OF 15-25
DEGREES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH JUST HIGHLIGHTS THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY AT THE SITES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...WISE
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