780
FXUS63 KSGF 031132
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
- LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) WITH A FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, WE'RE ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY WILL
BEGIN TO TURN WINDS CLOCKWISE BY SUNRISE. OUR CURRENT AIRMASS IS DRY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FOG RISK THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE
SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST. THOSE IN OUR FAR
EAST MAY SEE VERY, VERY PATCHY AND SHORT-LIVED FOG IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. DESPITE THE FRONT, AS WE SHIFT CLOSER THE AXIS
OF AN UPPER AIR RIDGE, HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING WILL ALLOW OUR HIGHS
TODAY TO FAR OUTDO YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED, WITH COOLER TEMPS TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WARMER TEMPS
TOWARD THE ARKANSAS BORDER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10KTS, VARYING IN DIRECTION CLOCKWISE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
TONIGHT, A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH, AND
OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 40 IN THE EAST
AND AROUND 50 IN THE WEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-44.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TUESDAY, ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, FLOW
SETTLES INTO A SOUTHERLY PATTERN UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE, AND OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S AREA-WIDE, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES QUITE A BIT AS
A LOW TO THE NORTH PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE HREF IS DEPICTING
CERTAINTY THAT AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS >30 MPH, BUT THE NBM SHOWS ONLY SMALL AREA GREATER THAN 70%
CENTERED ON JASPER COUNTY. REGARDLESS, THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF SPRINGFIELD AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR NEITHER WIND
NOR HUMIDITY WILL MEET RED FLAG CONDITIONS, THOUGH A SMALL AREA OF
ELEVATED RISK WILL EXIST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE ZONAL PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEY ARE HOWEVER NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY
PRECEDING WEEK. IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO MATERIALIZE, IT
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. POPS REMAIN BELOW 20% DUE TO BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY AND MOST PROBABLE LIGHT/SCATTERED NATURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT MOVES EAST, MOST
MODELS DEPICT IT DEEPENING FARTHER INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS IN TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE ARE UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN THE 15-20
DEGREE INTERQUARTILE SPREADS IN NBM FORECASTED TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES ON THE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A PASSING BOUNDARY IS INTRODUCING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLIES AT THE SURFACE AND WESTERLIES UP TO 40KTS JUST
OFF THE DECK. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 18Z AS THE
BOUNDARY PASSES. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND TURN
CLOCKWISE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING DOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 12Z TOMORROW. LLWS ALSO PICKS UP AGAIN NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS EARLY AS 6Z TOMORROW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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