488
FXUS63 KSGF 051709
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERING IN COLDER
AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS: IT'S A CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH JUST A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. LOWER
ELEVATIONS OUT EAST HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST IN THE WEST, COUNTERACTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL OVER THE OZARKS, BUT LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE JOINING FORCES
TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
TODAY: THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY ABOUT SUNRISE,
TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHERLY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, BUT STILL QUITE WEAK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE
IS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO RESULT IN ANY
PRECIPITATION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z RAOB PW VALUE OF 0.31 INCHES.
IN SUMMARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WON'T REALLY BE THAT
NOTICEABLE.
TONIGHT: BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AGAIN. WITHOUT
ALL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COUNTERACT THE COOLING WITH CLEAR
SKIES, LOWS WILL DECREASE A BIT TO LOW 40S IN THE NORTH AND HIGH 40S
IN THE SOUTH. WINDS CONTINUE THEIR CLOCKWISE TURN BACK TO BEING
SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE GULF, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO STREAM MORE MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OZARKS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT AT LEAST AN INCH OF PW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 70S WHILE THOSE IN THE EAST REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. MODELS OUT
THIS FAR AREN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE, BUT THE GFS IS INDICATING IT COULD BE UP TO
800 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE BETTER TO
THE EAST, AND OUR PROBABILITY OF SEEING RAIN REMAINS LOW. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, CLIPPING
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A 30% CHANCE. THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA HAS
A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MO, BUT THE CHANCES FOR
IT ALSO REMAIN BELOW 20%. OVERALL, THIS FRONT WILL MAKE MUCH BIGGER
WAVES TO OUR EAST.
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL KEEP THINGS MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. THE FRONT DOESN'T DISRUPT OUR ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
(THIS TIME) AND HIGHS AROUND 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP LOWS TO ALMOST NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: OUR WARM TEMPERATURES HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
SATURDAY AS WE BRIEFLY SIT WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WE'LL SEE MID TO HIGH 60S WITH SOME TEMPS
OF 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS IN
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE NBM STILL HAS INTERQUARTILE SPREADS
OF 6-7 DEGREES FOR EARLY WEEK, BUT EVEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS IN
THE MID-40S, AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW-NORMAL COLD TO START NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW IN THE TEENS, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW 20 AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN, AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW RECOVERY. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK IS STILL
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF A +PNA/-NAO
COULD RESULT IN A CONTINUALLY WAVY UPPER PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN
THIS WARM-COLD-WARM PATTERN CONTINUING FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL CLEAR BBG OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER MORE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP IN SPEED. AS MIXING BEGINS,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS AT SGF/JLN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...00
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