631
FXUS63 KSGF 052344
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING IN PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MID
NOVEMBER LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR HOWEVER STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST, MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
THEREFORE, MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 40S, OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THESE CLOUDS MAY MUTE THE WARMUP EVER SO SLIGHTLY, BUT
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
FROM EAST TO WEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)
ANOTHER "COLD" FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR THOUGH, THE AIR MASS BEHIND IT IS
PACIFIC IN NATURE. THIS BOUNDARY ALSO DOES NOT HAVE A LOT TO WORK
WITH IN TERMS OF RAINFALL CHANCES. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IS MEAGER WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT STAYING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ANY RAIN WOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND
VERY LIGHT IT APPEARS. SIX-HOUR PROBABILITIES ON THE LREF PEAK OUT
AT ABOUT 10-20% IN THESE REGIONS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL, BUT DROP
OFF TO NEAR 0% FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 10-15+ DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BUT ALSO
THICKER CLOUD COVER PREVENTING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE SOME ROOM FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB UPWARDS
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HYBRID CLIPPER/STRONG COLD FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUS
FOR BEING TOO COOL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF NORTHWEST FLOW/"CLIPPER"
LIKE CYCLONES.
(SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)
THE SURFACE LOW BY SATURDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, CLEARING THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES, NO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST WITH
THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
WHAT WILL BE NOTICED IS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AIR MASS APPEARS VERY STRONG FOR EARLY/MID
NOVEMBER. BOTH THE GEFS/EPS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER AND COLDER, NOW
SHOWING 850-HPA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PEAKING IN THE -15 TO -20C
RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EPS REMAINS SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GEFS, AND THE NBM IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FOR TEMPERATURES. THE INCOMING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE PLAINS IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE. A 1034+ HPA HIGH EVIDENT ON BOTH
THE GEFS/EPS MEANS WOULD BE >95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S GIVEN STRONG LOW-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRATOCUMULUS AS WELL.
GIVEN VERY LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS, SOME SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE A POSSIBILITY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, THE THEME IS THE COLD. THE COLDEST NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER
EAST TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AIR MASS AND A
PRETTY FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH,
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW 20S ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S
HIGHS, THOSE READINGS WOULD BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER GIVEN THE TRENDS
THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. CHECKING OUT RECORDS FOR 11/10, THEY LIKELY
WILL BE SAFE (MID 10S), BUT COULD GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
POTENTIALLY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE VERY CHILLY, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THOUGH THAN SUNDAY
SO IT PROBABLY WILL FEEL QUITE A BIT WARMER.
(MONDAY NIGHT - NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES FURTHER EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS QUITE THE SPREAD WITH
HOW QUICKLY THE ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE SPREAD ON THE NBM FOR TEMPERATURES INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AND REMAIN NEAR THAT
THRESHOLD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD WARMUP AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ON TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, BUT HOW
MUCH IS A BIG UNKNOWN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS LIKELY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WFO LSX
LONG TERM..WFO LSX
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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