949
FXUS63 KSGF 061116
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A
PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TODAY: A 1024MB HIGH OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SSE WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 MPH TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING
IN <15% POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL MO
COUNTIES. RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
WE START THE WEEKEND OUT RELATIVELY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A DEEP 500MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL HAVE A LOT OF COLD AIR SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLD AIR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
SPLITS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND/OR
OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -5C TO -10C WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A <15% CHANCE FOR SOME
FLURRIES ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT OF UP TO 25-35 MPH BASED ON BETTER VERIFYING NBM VERSION
5.0. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 40S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S, WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN NBM GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10-20 F INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-40% (IF NOT
LOWER), AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH IN THE
FORECAST, BUT NBM VERSION 5.0 GUSTS SHOW 35-45 MPH WHICH MORE
CLOSELY MATCHES MODEL PROFILE MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THIS DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LOOK FOR GUSTY S-SW WINDS TODAY AND SOME LLWS TONIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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