642
FXUS63 KSGF 070512
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH,
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN 5 TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM REACHING FORECASTED
HIGHS.
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPROACHES TONIGHT, A BATCH OF MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER, FORCING AND
MOISTURE REMAIN WEAKER IN NATURE, THUS WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN < 15% ACROSS CENTRAL MO. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS MILD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 70S AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BY SATURDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR, WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES. AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) EXIST WITH THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE,THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY SINKS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE A STRONG SURGE
OF COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE COLDER AIR PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. FURTHER SUPPORT OF COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 TO -10 C. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY WINDS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS. A LOOK AT NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DEPICT THE FOLLOWING:
PROB < 30: 90-100%
PROB < 25: 50-90%
PROB < 20: 10-30%
THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS AHEAD OF THIS EARLY SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RETURNING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS POSITIONS THE AREA IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A SURFACE HIGH AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, THIS PATTERN
FAVORS DRY AIR AND STRONG RETURN FLOW. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH (WEST OF HIGHWAY 65). THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
WITH DRY LEAF LITTER FALLING OVER THE AREA. CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES AS WE WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR FOR THE KSGF AND KBBG
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY TOMORROW EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...HATCH
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