244
FXUS63 KSGF 071131
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. WIND CHILLS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS EARLY MONDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A "COLD" FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
WILL ONLY RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DRIER,
YET STILL WARM, AIRMASS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 30-40% UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLDER PATTERN IS ONLY
TEMPORARY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
MID WEEK.
SATURDAY: AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BUT CENTRAL
MO DOES HAVE A 15-25% CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. GREATEST
POTENTIAL IS FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN FRONT OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, SO DIRECTIONS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S (NORTH) TO MID 40S (SOUTH) WILL FEEL
COLDER DUE TO 10-20 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH, RESULTING IN
MID DAY WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS EVEN COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS OF -5
TO -10 C) MOVES IN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR
FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD AS
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE LATE SUNDAY PAIRS WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST. LOOK FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
MONDAY WITH MID DAY WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S.
TUESDAY: FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN. AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ON TUESDAY AS
MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30%,
POSSIBLE LOWER. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPS INCREASING BY
15-20 C BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY (-5 TO -10C) AND 18Z TUESDAY
(10-15C). WINDS NEEDED TO ADVECT THIS AIRMASS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 25-35
MPH, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS >=40 MPH (NBM V5
PROBABILITIES OF 60-80%) AND >=45 MPH (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 65. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IF
THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS DOES OCCUR, ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AND A DRY AIRMASS BEING IN PLACES
FOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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