294
FXUS63 KSGF 151042
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING THROUGH MID WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-50%) RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS DEVELOPING AT 850MB AS THAT FLOW
BEGINS TO TURN WESTERLY. THE LATEST SGF SOUNDING DID SHOW
WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY
AIRMASS WITH A PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.11IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY.
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD IN THE VALLEYS
AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS WERE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH LOCATIONS
WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IN THE LOWER 20S.
TODAY: AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD. A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOW WIND GUSTS OF 35MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. AS IS THE CASE WITH STRONG
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGHS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH WITH
DEWPOINTS THEREFORE WE HAVE LOWERED THEM CLOSER TO THE NBM10TH
PERCENTILE AS WE BELIEVE MIXING WILL OFFSET THE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S,
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT ARE LIKELY TODAY. LOWEST
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF SPRINGFIELD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
COULD DROP TO 20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT/LACK OF
RAINFALL AND THIS HUMIDITY/WIND COMBINATION, WE BELIEVE THE
FIRE DANGER TODAY WILL BE ELEVATED.
TONIGHT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST HREF SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE 20S WITH PERHAPS A FEW TEENS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS/WIND PROTECTED AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE FURTHER WITH
MEAN 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PUSH HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. IF SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THEN TEMPS ON TUESDAY MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO SLIDE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WHICH
IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MIDDLE DECEMBER.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
RETURN/QUALITY WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 DO HAVE ABOUT A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THIS FRONT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.25INCH). IF THIS
SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW DOWN THEN WE COULD SEE HIGHER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD THEN GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
WITH HIGHS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SIGNIFICANT 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MIDDLE DECEMBER.
LATEST NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 DEGREES.
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH THE CPC OUTLOOK
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TURNING
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING GUSTS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD REACH 20-25KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO OCCUR AT
SGF AND JLN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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