540
FXUS63 KSGF 152104
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-60%) RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH.
A WARMER AIR MASS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S. MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE
DECREASING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND LIMITING MIXING AND HOW
GUSTY THE WINDS ARE, BUT GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25MPH WILL STILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT TIMES. TONIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP
INTO MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S, PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH
THE SYSTEM AS THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OVERALL BE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT SOME
RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST, GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65,
WHERE THERE IS A 15 TO 60% CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
RUMBLES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH TO NEAR ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MIDDLE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLDER
AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL TO RIDGING FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP WITH SIGNIFICANT 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION POTENTIAL RETURNING SATURDAY. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AND THE CPC
OUTLOOK FAVORS THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN A
WARMER AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
TUESDAY BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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