834
FXUS63 KSGF 161600
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1000 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE) WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-60% RANGING FROM WEST TO EAST) RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35MPH
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH A
WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE DID BRING SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH EARLIER HOWEVER THOSE HAVE SINCE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS, MORE HIGHER LEVEL, WERE PUSHING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. THE
LATEST KSGF SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MID LEVELS WARMING
WITH A 850MB TEMP OF 7C. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR EXISTED ABOVE 850MB
WITH A MID LEVEL RH OF 7%. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOWER TROP MIXED WITH TEMPS REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WHILE THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN WITH ONLY
FILTERED SUN BY AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT MILD AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE IT BECOMES OVERCAST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT HOWEVER THE
LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
WEDNESDAY: A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LATEST HREF
SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MAY START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LATEST NBM DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S
WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
COULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT
DROPPING BELOW 45 DEGREES (NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS). LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY HOWEVER A STRONG
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG LIFT WITH THE FRONT SHOULD FORCE A BAND OF RAIN
THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MEAN MU CAPE (ELEVATED INSTABILITY) IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500J/KG AND LIMITED TO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.25IN OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR, INCREASING TO 50%
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
RAINFALL.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE LOW (985-990MB) MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SET UP A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LATEST ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX OF
0.8 AND SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1 FOR WIND GUSTS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE ALREADY
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35MPH COMMON. A LOOK AT A
FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD SHOWS MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS UP TO 45MPH WHICH COULD BE OBTAINABLE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE AFTERNOON PEAK MIXING TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST/UPDATE WINDS/GUSTS FOR THURSDAY.
THE OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND ONGOING
DROUGHT, ANY CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS
LOW COULD POSE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. THE LATEST GEFS HOT-
DRY-WINDY INDEX SUGGESTS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 30MPH TO BE WEST OF SPRINGFIELD, CLOSER TO THE I-49
CORRIDOR. A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FIRE
DANGER TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST WHILE A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE LIMITED AND FURTHER WEST.
FRIDAY: A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO START OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING, DOWN INTO
THE 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MIDDLE DECEMBER. LATEST NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN LOOKS LIKELY BY SUNDAY HOWEVER
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL US DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
CLOUD DECK SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...WISE
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