975
FXUS63 KSGF 170455
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1055 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE) WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-70% RANGING FROM WEST TO EAST) RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
40 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OF THE DISTURBANCE.
NO RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A WARMER AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVECT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD ICE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA SO PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. STARTING
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO NO FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS CHANCES (15-70%) WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH, BUT SOME
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES. THE DRIER AIR
MASS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
THE COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA STARTING ON
SATURDAY, REMAINING IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE
MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL MEMBERS ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
SETS UP, AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BROKEN TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER MISSOURI. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LARGELY CLEAR THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT LOWER CLOUDS
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD, SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DIDIO
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