241
FXUS63 KSGF 181111
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
- SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST WED DEC
17 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. JUST AHEAD OF IT, UPPER-
AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS A WEAKER SECONDARY IMPULSE EXISTS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
BARRELING TO THE EAST.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING:
RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
DRIZZLE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE PATCHY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DRIZZLE WILL BE
SUPPLANTED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN MISSOURI. RAP OUTPUT AND OTHER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD ICE INCREASING THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
AROUND 100 TO 200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED BUT NON-ZERO (NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY
10% OR LESS). CAMS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN MAY OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BETTER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS REMAIN ON
TRACK; A TENTH TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH EAST OF SPRINGFIELD,
AND NOTHING TO A TENTH WEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
WINDY:
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEHIND THE FRONT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MIXING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH AN IMPRESSIVE 40-45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND LIKELY INCREASE WINDS
FURTHER. WHILE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, 00Z HREF
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH
(50 TO 90%). THUS, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO
6 PM FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE BREEZY (GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH), BUT LESS MIXING MAY REDUCE THE HIGHER-END POTENTIAL. TO
COMPLICATE THE MATTER, HOWEVER, WILL BE A SECOND SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION THAT PENETRATES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES FROM
THE FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, WE HAVE KEPT BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS EVEN AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING CEASES.
FIRE DANGER:
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUR
WEST BY MID-MORNING AND OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS DEPICT A CLASSIC INVERTED V-SHAPED TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT PROFILE, INDICATING A WELL MIXED AIRMASS. THERE IS
ALSO DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND
7000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FURTHERMORE, THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD KEEP FUELS
DRY. TO THAT END, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED
AND EVEN EXPANDED THEIR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY. FOR
REFERENCE, OUR FORECAST AREA AVERAGES JUST ONE TO TWO OF THESE
OUTLOOKS A YEAR.
FORECASTING DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CAN BE QUITE
DIFFICULT IN TRANSITION REGIMES SUCH AS TODAY AS THEY CAN OFTEN
BE "BOOM OR BUST" SCENARIOS, BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE
DRY SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ROBUST MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS FORECAST MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
FUELS, WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR
THESE LOCATIONS (THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE WIND ADVISORY). IT IS
POSSIBLE A SHORT-FUSED EASTWARD EXPANSION IS NEEDED IF THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT
FOR NOW WE HAVE STUCK WITH THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
BRIEF COLD TONIGHT:
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE TONIGHT. WITH THE
LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS, WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS ARE
FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST
WED DEC 17 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD SHOT TONIGHT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT
THIS QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR CONTEXT, AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 41 TO 46
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE WE DON'T TYPICALLY LIKE TO DISCUSS
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SEVEN DAYS OUT DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR SPRINGFIELD ON CHRISTMAS EVE IS 66 DEGREES. THE 75TH
PERCENTILE? 72 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 KT AT
TIMES. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SINK INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ066-077-088-093-101.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ066-077-088-093-101.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page