394
FXUS63 KSGF 190510
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS IN
THE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE 40S UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S
WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR. A SECONDARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLDER AIR MASS IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
UPPER 40S AND 50S THEN WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING. AS A RESULT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS BEFORE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THESE
DRIER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF I-49 WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS INCREASED WITH THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALSO JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKEN SOME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAKENING IN THE WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR MIXING WILL START TO
OCCUR. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 45 MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
AFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD SEE
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MO TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S OCCURRING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE TROUGH.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH LIKELY DURING THE DAY. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY TREND UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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