410
FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS USHERED IN A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND TEMPS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES HOWEVER
WERE ALREADY INCREASING JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE WITH MUCH LIGHTER WEST WINDS
THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS TYPICALLY ARE TOO BULLISH ON DEWPOINT
RECOVERY IN THESE REGIMES SO WE HAVE GONE WITH SOME OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. 850MB TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PER THE HREF) WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR ROLLA WHICH MAY
STAY DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. THIS AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS WHICH DROPS RH
VALUES CLOSER TO 20% IN LOCALIZED AREAS HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS ANOTHER INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. LATEST HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI COULD GUST TO 30MPH DURING PEAK MIXING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH, THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS BEING
THE GRASS FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUPPORTS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR CONFINED WELL NORTH ACROSS
CANADA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, THE
AIRMASS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY ONWARD AS MEAN 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 10-13C RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S. BY
MID WEEK ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A 585-590DM MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CELL SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE/PATTERN
LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE DURING THE WARM SEASON, NOT
LATE DECEMBER! THESE FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE AND THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ALSO POINTS TO
UNUSUALLY WARM DAYS BY MID WEEK.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A 50-80% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPS GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BRING US
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES AWAY AS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW
ANY FAVORABLE/MEANINGFUL CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A GLANCE AT THE LATEST GEFS BASED ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FORECAST SHOWS THE MEAN AO GOING NEGATIVE TOWARDS
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PATTERN
FLIP/SHIFT WHICH COULD OCCUR AROUND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY TREND UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...BURCHFIELD
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