090
FXUS63 KSGF 191951
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE RIDGE HAD MOVED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT PRODUCE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCE
IN CANADA, WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH A LOB OF LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHICH WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRING A RETURN OF SOME BREEZY WINDS, THOUGH NOTHING CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS GUSTY WINDS. WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
GUST FROM 20-25MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15MPH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BASED ON NBM/HRRR/SREF.
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR MORE THAN CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS FRONT AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR THE OZARKS WITH
ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND MAY BECOME BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS MONDAY EVENING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO AND ULTIMATELY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
INITIALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
10-14 DEGREES C RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NBM GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED GOOD,
50-80% CHANCE, OF HIGH TEMPS GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
REGION FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE SOME MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN MIGHT OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION, AND THEN THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
IN THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS. OTHERWISE, CHANCES WILL BE WELL LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS NOT
SHOWING ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A GLANCE AT THE LATEST WAVE 5 PATTERN, GEFS
BASED ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) AND NAO INDICIES SHOW A SHIFT
TOWARDS NEGATIVE INDICIES WHICH CAN BRING COOLER WEATHER TO
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PATTERN
FLIP/SHIFT WHICH COULD OCCUR AROUND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
YEAR. A CAVEAT WOULD BE THE RATHER STRONG DEPICTION OF A
NEGATIVE PNA AS WELL, IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN, THIS MAY LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AS WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY, IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT, A 850MB (APPROXIMATELY 5KFT) LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LLWS FROM 40 TO 55KTS OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
CLIMATE...BURCHFIELD
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