062
FXUS63 KSGF 200814
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
214 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CHURNING AWAY OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA, CREATING A TROUGH DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS,
PUSHING EAST INTO THE OZARKS. OUR AIRMASS IS MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY OF
THIS FORCING TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION, BUT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY,
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH (HIGHEST ATOP THE PLATEAU) WITH GUSTS 20-
25 MPH. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AFTER SUNRISE AND ARE CLOSER TO 10
MPH BY MIDDAY.
WHILE THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION, THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ABOVE 40%, PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME CONCERN WITH THE DRIEST GRASSES, BUT THAT THREAT
IS PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
WE'LL SEE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE OUR
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
IN THE SOUTH (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY, ALLOWING US TO COOL A BIT FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS. WE'LL SEE
HIGH 20S IN LOW-LYING AND PROTECTED AREAS WITH LOWS AROUND 30 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AND UP TO THE MID 30S FOR THOSE ALONG THE ARKANSAS
BORDER. THESE ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL LOWS IN
THE MID TO HIGH 20S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 MPH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY, SUNDAY'S EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS MANAGE TO WARM US UP
INTO THE 50S, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SATURDAY'S HIGHS AND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL NO PRECIPITATION, THOUGH CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS SOME MOISTURE NORTH. AS IT
APPROACHES, WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT (10-15 MPH) AND COULD CAUSE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY, LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO HIGH 30S. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WILL BRING OVERCAST
SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME THAT CLEAR OUT BY NIGHTTIME. COUPLED
WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND 60
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LOOK TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS INCREASE EACH DAY WITH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY THE WARMEST, IN THE MID 70S. NBM INTERQUARTILE
SPREADS ARE ONLY 3 DEGREES ON EACH OF THOSE DAYS, INDICATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES WE MAY
TIE OR BREAK SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT TIMES FROM THE 23RD TO THE 25TH (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION).
THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTO THE 2-4 WEEK TIMEFRAME, PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (PER THE CPC) ARE ON A DECLINE, SO WE MAY
GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT AROUND THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
PEAK AT 50-60 KTS AROUND SUNRISE. THEN, WINDS DECREASE AND BEGIN
TO TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BY 18Z AND NORTHERLY WINDS BY 00Z. A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982 FORECAST: 70
KJLN: 73/1982 FORECAST: 70
KVIH: 68/1904 FORECAST: 64
KUNO: 68/1996 FORECAST: 68
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955 FORECAST: 74
KJLN: 75/2021 FORECAST: 74
KVIH: 72/9999 FORECAST: 71
KUNO: 74/1955 FORECAST: 71
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889 FORECAST: 74
KJLN: 72/2016 FORECAST: 74
KVIH: 71/1971 FORECAST: 74
KUNO: 74/2021 FORECAST: 73
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 68/2008 FORECAST: 72
KJLN: 75/2021 FORECAST: 72
KVIH: 72/1971 FORECAST: 68
KUNO: 73/1971 FORECAST: 71
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889 FORECAST: 57
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889 FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 54/1942 FORECAST: 57
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...NELSON
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