738
FXUS63 KSGF 202306
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AN 850MB
TROUGH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MO, AND AN ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST-
TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR FORECAST
AREA. OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEPICTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
ALREADY REACHING 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S HIGHS (AS OF
1PM), WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE CLEARLY NOT AFFECTED TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DROPPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SOME LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS
COULD SEE TEMPS EVEN LOWER, DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NOT SHIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 40S (EASTERN OZARKS) TO MID 50S (SOUTHWEST MO). THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, AS DRY CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIPPING INTO THE
25-35% RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 10-15MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
PRIMARILY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S, WITH THE
LOWER END OF THAT RANGE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK, RAISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB EACH DAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS COMES WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE, AS THE NBM
INTERQUARTILE SPREAD ONLY HIGHLIGHTS A 3-DEGREE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. TO PUT HOW ABNORMAL THIS
IS INTO PERSPECTIVE, SPRINGFIELD HAS ONLY REACHED THE 70S ON
CHRISTMAS DAY TWICE IN HISTORY. THE FIRST OCCURRENCE WAS IN 1889
WHEN WE HIT 74 DEGREES (THE CURRENT RECORD), AND THE SECOND WAS
IN 1971 WITH 70 DEGREES. WE CAME CLOSE IN 2019, BUT ONLY GOT UP
TO 69 DEGREES THAT YEAR. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
HIGHLIGHTS AN EFI BETWEEN 0.9-0.95 CHRISTMAS DAY, FURTHER
EMPHASIZING THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE'S EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
OZARKS WON'T GET A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR THE CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR. HOWEVER AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE DECLINE,
SO WE MAY SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 57/1982
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...MELTO
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