975
FXUS63 KSGF 211122
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 65.
- STEADY WARMING TREND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
YESTERDAY'S TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE A
FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE TROUGH, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY UNIMPEDED RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY TODAY, THOUGH, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMNANT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY, BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS
LACKING. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 25-35%. WITH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25
POSSIBLE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 65. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT TODAY, AS IT WILL OTHERWISE BE QUITE A NICE DAY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS WE BECOME SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE. THE WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST,
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 IN THE
EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY, THICKER CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
MOVE IN WITH A LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PULLS MOISTURE NORTH. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO PICK UP AGAIN WEST OF 65 AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WHICH HELPS OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S, NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS DIE DOWN AND THE
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AROUND SUNSET MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES ONCE MORE. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT, A DEEP LAYER
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES, LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO IN EXCESS OF 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. NORMAL LOWS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL PUSH 70 WITH CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY IN THE MID
70S, POTENTIALLY SETTING NEW RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO, AND MODEL REANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXCEPTIONAL RARITY OF
THESE TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL PASSAGE FINALLY BREAKS THINGS UP
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CPC IS STILL
INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY TIMEFRAME, BUT
ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOPEFULLY,
SEASONABLE WINTER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO US AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN EASTERLY BUT
SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND PICK UP, UP TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY.
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH 15 KTS SUSTAINED/20
KT GUSTS ATOP THE OZARK PLATEAU. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN EARNEST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND AN MVFR CLOUD DECK PASSES THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING (NEXT TAF PERIOD). NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KUNO: 73/1971
DECEMBER 27:
KSGF: 71/2005
KJLN: 70/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
DECEMBER 27:
KSGF: 50/1946
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...NELSON
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