419
FXUS63 KSGF 212312
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK. CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON (RH VALUES OF 15-25%)
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE. LOOK FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES
ON MONDAY OF 60-70%.
- LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
- LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS:
- MAIN STORY IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
LISTING OF RECORDS THAT COULD BE BROKEN). NBM CONTINUES TO
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S (WARMEST WEDNESDAY
AND CHRISTMAS) WITH SMALL INTERQUARTILE SPREADS OF JUST A FEW
DEGREES). HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL CATCH AS HIGHER RES
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SAMPLE THIS TIME RANGE, THEY ARE
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG, AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE.
THE LARGER SCALE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT GOING TO
SAMPLE THIS WELL, HENCE THE SMALL NBM SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IS
LIMITED, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS END UP SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSETTING TEMPERATURES
APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT IS NEARBY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND:
- WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL OUTPUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME 15-25% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
HARD TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
DISCONTINUITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE AVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME GUSTY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
DECEMBER 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
DECEMBER 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...HATCH
CLIMATE...MELTO
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