899
FXUS63 KSGF 050501
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (60-80%
CONFIDENCE). FREEZING FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS TIME
AROUND AS LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS 45-65% CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY (15-30% CHANCE) INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TODAY FEATURES BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CONUS. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS TWO
BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM ENDING AT THE BASE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES. ONE BRANCH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE
DAKOTAS WHERE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH. THE SECOND BRANCH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS IS
VACUUMING IN AIR FROM THE SOUTH, RENEWING WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S DESPITE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING:
MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR
AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUBTLE 700MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. BOTH FACTORS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, ONE
MAJOR DIFFERENCE INCLUDES A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERHEAD
CREATING 8-12 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS MIXED AND UNABLE TO PRODUCE FOG AND SIDE
MORE WITH LOW STRATUS. EITHER WAY, THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOW (<10%), SO IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FURTHERMORE, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-30S
TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL.
DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY,
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THEN FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE A BIT TUESDAY AS A
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, BUT WITH THE
FLAT TROUGH AND JET STREAK NORTH OF THE AREA, ANY APPRECIABLY
COOLER AIR WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
60S TUESDAY WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER
40S TUESDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH/SYSTEM,
ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS 45-65% CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE FIGURED OUT THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING PATTERN COMING INTO THE AREA AS NBM PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA HAS FINALLY INCREASED FROM 30-50%
TO 45-65%. DESPITE THIS GENERAL AGREEMENT, CLUSTERS STILL REVEAL
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN DRASTIC "WIGGLES" OF THE AXIS OF
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 13Z NBM HAS THIS
AXIS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, 12Z GLOBAL
MODELS (WHICH MOST AREN'T INCLUDED IN THE 13Z NBM) DEPICT A
SHIFT FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO HOLD WEIGHT.
IGNORING PINNING DOWN WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LAND FOR A
SECOND, THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT WIDESPREAD, MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (45-65%).
WHILE THE MAIN MESSAGE LEADS TO MINIMAL IMPACTS, THERE ARE SOME
NUANCES TO THE FORECAST THAT MODEL MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR. FIRSTLY, THE NBM FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS AS THE "PROBABILITY OF THUNDER" WAS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GLOBAL DETERMINISTICS
LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING IN ENOUGH CAPE FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES INTRODUCE THE MENTION OF
LIGHTNING.
SECONDLY, WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL PAIRED
WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED,
A LOW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. THE
CHANCE IS AT 5% AS THE WPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS CONCERN
WOULD NEED TO BE HEEDED IF A FEW THINGS HAPPEN WITH THE
FORECAST. FIRST, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL PANS OUT. AND SECOND, A
MORE MERIDIONAL TROUGH ORIENTATION OCCURS, RESULTING IN STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH,
THE 12Z GFS DOES SHOW THIS SCENARIO, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF 2-3
INCHES OF RAIN ALONG I-44. THE 12Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT HAS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TROUGH ORIENTATION
WHICH KEEPS AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH. THAT SAID, THOSE ARE JUST 2
OF THE 100 OF MODEL MEMBERS. THE CURRENT NBM PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ONLY 20-40%, SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE TREND SEEN IN THE
DETERMINISTICS TRANSLATES TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LASTLY, IF THE TROUGH ASSUMES OR MORE POSITIVELY-TILTED
ORIENTATION, THIS WOULD DELAY ITS EXIT WHICH COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE
COLD FRONT. THIS COULD BRING EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. ONCE AGAIN,
THOUGH, EACH SCENARIO IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN SO WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS GOING FORWARD.
COOLDOWN FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM; UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COOLING:
MODEL ENSEMBLES NOW AGREE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM (SHOUTOUT TO AI ENSEMBLES FOR
PREDICTING THIS BEFORE PHYSICAL ENSEMBLES). THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GENERAL COOLDOWN. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE NOTORIOUS SOUTHWEST CONUS
CLOSED LOW. MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LOW UNTIL
A FEW DAYS BEFORE. THEREFORE, WE CAN ONLY OFFER A FORECAST OF A
COOLDOWN. BUT THAT COOL DOWN COULD BE INTO THE LOWER 50S, OR
FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...WISE
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