606
FXUS63 KSGF 052311
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS 60-80% CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY (15-35% CHANCE) INTO FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE
40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A MAINLY CLEAR
AND SUNNY SKY ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND FOG REMAINED ACROSS PORTION OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WAS
OCCURING UNDER A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL HELP THE
OZARKS SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARMER THAT AVERAGE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL PASS
THROUGH DRY AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
THE ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN SPREADING INTO THE OZARKS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, THANKS TO FROM
100 TO 300 J/KG OF CAPE, WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
LEAD TROUGH MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAIN IN EXCESS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SINCE THE END OF
LAST NOVEMBER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SPREADS PROVIDE A
50-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAS 0.25 INCHES WITH FROM 25 TO 40% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING AN INCH FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND FOLLOWING ONE OF THE DRIEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD, THE
REGION CAN USE A GOOD WETTING RAIN.
A SECONDARY TROUGH DOES DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY
MORNING AND SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ALSO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE, IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SNOW MIXING IN AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE WOULD BE
NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
THE REGION THEN SETTLES UNDER NORTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR
SUNDAY WITH A SLOW RETURN OF WORM AIR AND DRY WEATHER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20-25KTS AT KSGF AND
KJLN BEFORE DIMINISHING GENERALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN BETWEEN 00Z TO NEAR 07Z
THIS EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...MELTO
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