472
FXUS63 KSGF 061036
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE
40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A WEAK
FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD NOT LAST TO LONG FOR ANY GIVING LOCATION.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A WARMER AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TODAY THEN START TO MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AND COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA. SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SYSTEM BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. WITH
STRONG FORCING AND INCREASED SHEAR THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH WIND THE MAIN RISK
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TWO AREAS OF PRECIPTIATION WITH THE
SYSTEM, ONE ALONG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD
GET CLIPPED. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWS COOL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP. SOME
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING IMPROVING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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