559
FXUS63 KSGF 062259
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THE
MORNING FOG DISSIPATED, SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WERE ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI MAY EVEN APPROACH THE 70 MARK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE OZARKS.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
AS TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT, A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
DEVELOP AS IT DID THIS MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO
5 MILE RANGE.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
OZARKS TOMORROW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE A LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE
TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE OZARKS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT. RAIN, AND ISOLATED STORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AND COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS.
SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH CURRENT MODELS/CAMS
INDICATING FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH STRONG FORCING AND INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WITH WIND THE MAIN RISK.
THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A QUITE DAY FOR THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
AS THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL REINFORCING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIFTS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD(ISH) AGREEMENT ON BRINING
ADDITIONAL, LIGHT, PRECIPTIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE OZARKS THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWS COOL INTO THE 20S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WHICH IS MORE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY
JANUARY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXPECTING VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WHAT
WE'VE SEEN IN THE REGION OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, WITH
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SHALLOW, PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (30-50%) IN SEEING MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE 10-15Z HOURS, WITH
INTENSITY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THESE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. SINCE CONFIDENCE FALLS
BETWEEN 30-50%, OPTED TO LEAVE SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WHETHER OR NOT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL INSIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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