288
FXUS63 KSGF 071930
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND BREEZY WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A
WEAKLY BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON SATELLITE, A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST, WHILE BROKEN CIRRUS ARE
OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE MUCH-
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY, AND THE SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
BREEZY THURSDAY:
AS THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING, MODELS
SHOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING. THIS INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 45 MPH (ADVISORY
CRITERIA) WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WHERE HREF PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING THIS VALUE ARE IN THE 30 TO 60% RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THE MIXING LAYER BEING PARTICULARLY DEEP,
THOUGH IT REALLY WON'T HAVE TO BE TO MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM
FLOW DUE TO THE STRONG 850 MB JET. GIVEN ALL OF THIS, CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME, BUT
MODEL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY:
HI- RES GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WITH IT, LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN WILL DEVELOP. FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE STRONGER ALONG THE
TRAILING "COLD" FRONT AS IT PUSHES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG IT, HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (80 TO 90% CHANCE).
DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY, STRONG (50 TO 60 KT) DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORMS OR LINE SEGMENTS
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH SHOULD THEY
BECOME SURFACE- BASED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MAINTAINED THEIR MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LARGELY LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH AREAWIDE. TOTALS
RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-44,
AND FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. HREF
90TH PERCENTILE TOTALS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES AS A REASONABLE
HIGH-END SCENARIO.
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT:
COOLER TEMPERATURES HOLD OFF UNTIL A SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, FINALLY USHERING IN
A COLDER AIRMASS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S, BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE COMING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND:
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CONUS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD
ARE IN THE 41 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE.
VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY:
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DISAGREE,
HOWEVER, ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
THEREFORE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. ULTIMATELY, THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CURRENTLY CHANCES ARE LOW (10%). IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN, BUT IF ANY PRECIP CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD ALSO MIX IN.
REGARDLESS, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MOSTLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSENSUS ON DEVELOPING AND STALLING AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MISSOURI OZARKS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW (AND GENERALLY
DRY) PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NBM PERCENTILE DATA SUPPORT A
SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL, WITH MEAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TODAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING, AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 12Z AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE CLOSER TO 18Z. WHILE MOST ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE LIGHTNING, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, SO ANY MENTION WAS RELEGATED TO A
PROB30 GROUP. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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