135
FXUS63 KSGF 082250
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5)
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TREK ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED WHEN IT WAS IN OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS MORNING, DECREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OZARKS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE MORE
NEBULOUS APPEARANCE ON RADAR, AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN THE
LIMITING FACTOR. SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE QUALITY NORTH OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU IS MORE QUESTIONABLE, AND THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN IS CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, HOWEVER, WHICH IS
AIDING IN LOCALLY HIGHER (~500 J/KG) SURFACE- BASED CAPE. THIS
IS WHERE WE SEE THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA THAT WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN OZARKS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A BRIEF
SPIN- UP TORNADO. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO END BY AROUND 9 PM
AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN A COLDER AIRMASS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE YET TO COME, HOWEVER, AS LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE NEAR 40
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST IS
PROGGED TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THAT'S INCITING TODAY'S CONVECTION. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS TODAY, HOWEVER,
AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE CLOSE TO--IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN--
OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST, LEAVING THE
MISSOURI OZARKS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS SETUP WOULD
TEND TO KEEP OUR REGION DRY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVES THAT CAN DIG A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST, AS HINTED BY
OCCASIONAL RUNS FROM GLOBAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY. NBM PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER, AND
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS (1500-2500 FEET) OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND 4 TO 6 MILES BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS (700 TO 900 FEET) AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BECOMING WESTERLY THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY WINDS TURN OUT OF
NORTH- NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...PEREZ
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