434
FXUS63 KSGF 090516
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5)
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TREK ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED WHEN IT WAS IN OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS MORNING, DECREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OZARKS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE MORE
NEBULOUS APPEARANCE ON RADAR, AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN THE
LIMITING FACTOR. SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE QUALITY NORTH OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU IS MORE QUESTIONABLE, AND THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN IS CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, HOWEVER, WHICH IS
AIDING IN LOCALLY HIGHER (~500 J/KG) SURFACE- BASED CAPE. THIS
IS WHERE WE SEE THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA THAT WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN OZARKS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A BRIEF
SPIN- UP TORNADO. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO END BY AROUND 9 PM
AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN A COLDER AIRMASS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE YET TO COME, HOWEVER, AS LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE NEAR 40
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST IS
PROGGED TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THAT'S INCITING TODAY'S CONVECTION. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS TODAY, HOWEVER,
AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE CLOSE TO--IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN--
OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST, LEAVING THE
MISSOURI OZARKS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS SETUP WOULD
TEND TO KEEP OUR REGION DRY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVES THAT CAN DIG A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST, AS HINTED BY
OCCASIONAL RUNS FROM GLOBAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY. NBM PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER, AND
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA, HOWEVER STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST POINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND PART OF FRIDAY MORING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INITIAL GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UP TO 25 KTS, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09-10Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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