569
FXUS63 KSGF 092222
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
422 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, WITH FLURRIES
MIXING IN TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST (60-80%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND, CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW & CURRENT CONDITIONS:
AFTER YESTERDAY'S QUICK-HITTING SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS BOWLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, PREPARING TO ABSORB THE CLOSED LOW AS IT RACES THROUGH
THE AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A STRATUS DECK THAT FORMED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI IS JUST
FINALLY DISSIPATING, AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID- TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT
SPENT THE MORNING DEALING WITH THAT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS.
TONIGHT, THAT CLOSED LOW SCRAPES ACROSS MISSOURI ON ITS WAY TO
JOIN THE PARENT TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA TOMORROW,
BRINGING BACK PRECIP CHANCES AS IT PASSES OVER US. A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA WITH IT, BRINGING THE AREA A COLD
WIND IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S WHEN
PRECIP CHANCES ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST, MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL FASTER, SOME SNOW
FLURRIES/SHOWERS COULD MIX IN TO THE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS NORTH OF I-44 RANGE FROM A 20-80% CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WITH MOST HAVING A 20-50% CHANCE. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA - WARSAW - SEDALIA LINE
ARE BOTH MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION (60-80%) AND ALSO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS. THERE COULD ALSO BE BE SOME
SCATTERED PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR SHALLOW FOG WHERE SMALL
DROPLETS CAN'T QUITE GROW ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED RAIN, WHICH
COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS. ACCUMULATION FROM BOTH
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TROUBLE STICKING.
SOME FROST COULD FORM OUT WEST BEHIND THE WAVE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, SO YOU MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO WARM UP YOUR CAR A LITTLE
EARLIER TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DAY
WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH THE BRISK NORTHERLY WIND FEELING COLD
AS GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BRINGING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY'S MORNING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE LOW TEENS.
OUR HEMISPHERIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WITH 5 WAVES KEEPING FLOW PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL
COLD AIR SURGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA AS THE CYCLONE SYSTEM
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY, AND OUR
TEMPERATURES DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. THE OTHER THING THIS COLD AIR SURGE
WILL ACT TO DO IS POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN SATRUDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL BURST OF COLD AIR. THE COLD
AIR DECREASES OUR 1000-500MB THICKNESS TO BELOW 5400M,
SUGGESTING SNOW WILL BE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ALL THE WAY DOWN.
DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY FLAKES REACHING
THE GROUND, WHICH IS THE SOLUTION THAT MANY MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS, BUT SOME MORE RECENT CAMS INTRODUCE A LOW QPF
FOOTPRINT IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL.
WE GET A BREAK FROM THE BARRAGE OF SHORTWAVES FOR A DAY OR TWO
AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, BRINGING US BACK UP TO THE WARM
PART OF THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO LOW 60S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE WHEN THE NEXT WAVE STARTS IMPACTING US,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO THE 40S AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE RE-INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM(S) IN THE GREAT
LAKES AREA APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DYNAMIC, AND WITH THAT BEING THE
MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE IN OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW THAT WILL IMPACT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FORECAST. KNOWING THE PATTERN IS
HIGHLY ENERGETIC, IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO THINK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
COULD IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK THAT LONGER RANGE MODELS JUST
MAY NOT BE PICKING UP YET. DUE TO SUCH HIGH UNCERTAINTY, POPS
REMAIN LOW, BUT STAY TUNED BECAUSE THAT MAY CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS (CIGS ~800-1500FT) WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS SLOWLY RECEDING FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE AREA WARMS
UP. SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
EXPECTING KJLN TO CLEAR THE STRATUS DECK WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10KTS TURN
NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS
THAT PASS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN SEEING SHOWERS/SOME LIGHT FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS KSGF AND
KJLN IS LOWER, SO KEPT WX EVENT MENTIONS ONLY TO PROB30 AT THIS
TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page