736
FXUS63 KSGF 092340
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, WITH FLURRIES
MIXING IN TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST (60-80%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND, CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW & CURRENT CONDITIONS:
AFTER YESTERDAY'S QUICK-HITTING SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS BOWLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS SCRAPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, PREPARING TO ABSORB THE CLOSED LOW AS IT RACES THROUGH
THE AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A STRATUS DECK THAT FORMED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI IS JUST
FINALLY DISSIPATING, AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID- TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT
SPENT THE MORNING DEALING WITH THAT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS.
TONIGHT, THAT CLOSED LOW SCRAPES ACROSS MISSOURI ON ITS WAY TO
JOIN THE PARENT TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA TOMORROW,
BRINGING BACK PRECIP CHANCES AS IT PASSES OVER US. A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA WITH IT, BRINGING THE AREA A COLD
WIND IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S WHEN
PRECIP CHANCES ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST, MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL FASTER, SOME SNOW
FLURRIES/SHOWERS COULD MIX IN TO THE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS NORTH OF I-44 RANGE FROM A 20-80% CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WITH MOST HAVING A 20-50% CHANCE. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA - WARSAW - SEDALIA LINE
ARE BOTH MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION (60-80%) AND ALSO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS. THERE COULD ALSO BE BE SOME
SCATTERED PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR SHALLOW FOG WHERE SMALL
DROPLETS CAN'T QUITE GROW ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED RAIN, WHICH
COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS. ACCUMULATION FROM BOTH
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TROUBLE STICKING.
SOME FROST COULD FORM OUT WEST BEHIND THE WAVE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, SO YOU MAY NEED TO PREPARE TO WARM UP YOUR CAR A LITTLE
EARLIER TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DAY
WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH THE BRISK NORTHERLY WIND FEELING COLD
AS GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BRINGING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY'S MORNING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE LOW TEENS.
OUR HEMISPHERIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WITH 5 WAVES KEEPING FLOW PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. AN ADDITIONAL
COLD AIR SURGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA AS THE CYCLONE SYSTEM
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY, AND OUR
TEMPERATURES DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. THE OTHER THING THIS COLD AIR SURGE
WILL ACT TO DO IS POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN SATRUDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL BURST OF COLD AIR. THE COLD
AIR DECREASES OUR 1000-500MB THICKNESS TO BELOW 5400M,
SUGGESTING SNOW WILL BE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ALL THE WAY DOWN.
DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY FLAKES REACHING
THE GROUND, WHICH IS THE SOLUTION THAT MANY MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS, BUT SOME MORE RECENT CAMS INTRODUCE A LOW QPF
FOOTPRINT IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL.
WE GET A BREAK FROM THE BARRAGE OF SHORTWAVES FOR A DAY OR TWO
AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, BRINGING US BACK UP TO THE WARM
PART OF THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO LOW 60S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE WHEN THE NEXT WAVE STARTS IMPACTING US,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO THE 40S AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE RE-INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM(S) IN THE GREAT
LAKES AREA APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DYNAMIC, AND WITH THAT BEING THE
MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE IN OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW THAT WILL IMPACT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FORECAST. KNOWING THE PATTERN IS
HIGHLY ENERGETIC, IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO THINK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
COULD IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK THAT LONGER RANGE MODELS JUST
MAY NOT BE PICKING UP YET. DUE TO SUCH HIGH UNCERTAINTY, POPS
REMAIN LOW, BUT STAY TUNED BECAUSE THAT MAY CHANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A FROPA IS ON THE WAY TO THE TAF SITES FOR THIS 00Z PERIOD.
LEADING UP TO THE FROPA, 5-10 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT FORM EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY, THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 06-09Z. WITH THE FROPA, SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY AT SGF AND JLN BETWEEN 06-11Z (30-40%
CHANCE). CIGS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO IFR AT THIS TIMEFRAME
(85-95% CONFIDENCE).
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR/IFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 13-16Z. FROM RULES OF THUMB, SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE 850 ISOTHERM/700 MB HEIGHT TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SGF/BBG UNTIL 18-20Z, SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS HOLD ON THROUGH 18-20Z, SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...PRICE
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