067
FXUS63 KSGF 102051
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI. DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI.
- A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
COOLER AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE. SKIES ARE NOW
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED ELEVATED NEAR
25 MPH FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT
15 MPH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CHURNING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AND THE COMMA HEAD WILL SLOWLY START TO WRAP
AROUND LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR
RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO AND A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN TOO IF
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVES IN JUST AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. THOUGH, WE DO HAVE A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW
20S. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH IS BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
LIFT TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO FORM, THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE AIR FOR THOSE SHOWERS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS IS WHY WE HAVE
KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 10 PM WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OCCURRING
IN THE AREAS THAT ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
(CENTRAL/EASTERN MO).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAY.
ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN AND WINDS FLIP BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S AND 60S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS FORECAST
TO BE A DRY FRONT WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. MODEL
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL INCONCLUSIVE ON HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THAT MOVES IN WITH THAT FRONT NEXT WEEK. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE RANGE FOR THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
SPRINGFIELD IS EITHER A HIGH OF 37 OR 50 DEGREES. DESPITE NOT
KNOWING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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