774
FXUS63 KSGF 110747
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
147 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS MONDAY THEN
COOLER AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW THROUGH MISSOURI. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION(RAIN/SNOW). THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND SHOULD END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WEST OF THE
UPPER LOW, A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA IN CANADA INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT, TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
TODAY: PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT COLDER AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY WIND AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL START UP. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30, WITH LOW TO MID 20S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S ON MONDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY. SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY
MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW POPS(15-20%). TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: BEHIND THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE, COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IN THE
40S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
SATURDAY: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR. HIGHS IN THE
30S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATON WITH THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
WERE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUD COVER
WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE SGF
TERMINAL. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AT SGF THEREAFTER.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHT LATER IN THE DAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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